Price of one Lifestyles condom: $0.85
Price of one Trojan condom: $1.03
Price of one non-latex condom: $1.81
Failure rate = 5%
Chances that your randomly-selected, new Canadian partner:
Is fertile: 98.2%
Has an STD, including HPV at 10%, not including HIV/AIDS or Hep B: 10.2%
Has HIV/AIDS: 0.12%
Pregnancy rate for healthy couples: 20%
STD infection rate (depends on disease): 80-90%
Hetero HIV infection rate (varies according to many factors including health status, gender, and sexual preference): 1%
Basic cost of raising a child to age 18: $200,000 in today’s dollars
Approximate cost of treatment for common STD’s: may or may not be covered by health insurance, varies widely by condition (chromic or curable)
Annual cost of full anti-viral treatment for HIV: up to $10,000
Psychological & emotional costs of not keeping the child, as a function of individual preferences: PV1 = ?
Psychological & emotional costs of living with an STD, undergoing treatment, or experiencing lasting health issues of the same: PV2 = ?
Psychological & emotional costs of living with HIV/AIDS: PV3 = ?
Psychological & emotional costs having a child you are not ready for: PV4 = ?
For the sake of argument, let’s set the psychological and emotional cost equations as follows (answers will vary according to values and preferences): PV1 = $500,000; PV2 = $350,000; PV3 = $2,000,000; PV4 =$200,000.
For HIV/AIDS we will add PV3 to 20 years at $10,000 = $2,200,000
For pregnancy, we will add PV4 to monetary cost = $400,000 total. Since this amount is less costly than the alternative PV1, and only one pregnancy can result from one such incident, we will use the “keeping” child scenario in the probability tree.
Note that all 3 of these outcomes could happen simultaneously, and are basically independent of each other (there is a higher probability of HIV infection given STD infection, for example, but we won’t account for that here):
Therefore, the cost of sex with a new, randomly-selected Canadian partner is:
$1.03 + 0.05*(0.982*0.2*400,000) + 0.05*(0.102*0.85*350,000) + 0.05*(0.12*0.01*2,200,000)
$5,578.28
Seems a bit high? Let’s add the Pill, average cost after insurance $0.70 per day (7-day minimum), with 99% effectiveness to the equation:
$1.03 + 7*0.70+ 0.05*0.01*(0.982*0.2*400,000) + 0.05*(0.102*0.85*350,000) + 0.05*(0.12*0.01*2,200,000)
$1,694.46
I don't know about you, but “Dinner & a Movie” seems to be a more prudent choice.
***Postscript***
Alright, some of you will be up in arms over this. You will argue that you don’t usually have sex with a “randomly selected Canadian about whom you know nothing”. So...
The absolute lowest-cost /risk incidence would be for an experienced condom user (failure rate = 2.5%) whose monogamous partner is also using a contraceptive perfectly (failure rate = 0.3%), and both agree to present a current, clean bill of health. In addition, PV4 may not be as high when a healthy relationship is involved, so I've decreased the "unprepared" cost by $100,000. If theoretical "certainty" existed, the cost equation would be:
$1.03 + 7*0.70+ 0.025*0.003*(0.982*0.2*300,000) = $6.37
With a marginal cost of about $1.03 after t =1 within 24 hours.
BUT, now assume that your partner had cheated ONE SINGLE TIME, given the same protective measures were used:
$6.37+(0.025^2*0.102^2*0.85^2*350000)+(0.025^2*0.12^2*0.01^2*2200000) = $8.02
Cost would increase to $8.02 thereafter. The only way to bring the cost down to baseline $6.37 again would be to insist that your partner be medically re-examined.
*Disclaimer: These PV equations do not represent the personal opinion of the author. This is an over-simplification of the risks and costs involved in one sexual encounter with a new partner. Costs, rates and stats are averages and approximations. Real risks and probabilities will vary by gender, age, sexual preference, and other factors. This is not intended to be health advice. Always practice safer sex.
